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Sep 19 2018

Real Rates and the Federal Deficit

  • Sep 19, 2018

The real short-term interest rate shows how inappropriately-loose monetary policy has remained in the face of a steady economic expansion.

Sep 08 2018

Fondly Remembering The Year 2000...

  • Sep 8, 2018

Many equity investors have suggested there’s no comparison between today’s expensive market and the bubble peak of Y2K, pointing out that today’s Technology titans are “real companies” with massive revenue underpinnings.

Sep 08 2018

Beware The Breakout

  • Sep 8, 2018

The S&P 500 finally erased the losses from its nine-day swoon in January and February.

Aug 07 2018

Y2K All Over Again?

  • Aug 7, 2018

We’ve been reticent to draw links between the current bull and that of the late 1990s; we felt the last phase of the earlier episode was so extraordinary it was unlikely we’d see anything similar again in our lifetimes. But statistical parallels are on the rise, including the attempt by the S&P 500 to recoup its 2018 correction losses.

Aug 07 2018

The Flags Are A-Flappin’!

  • Aug 7, 2018

The S&P 500 is on the verge of reversing its early-2018 losses and, if achieved, it would initially be accompanied by six “Red Flags”—which are based on key market indexes failing to record new highs in the 21 trading days preceding a new S&P 500 high. The last time the tally reached “six” was in May 2015—occurring at the final high before an S&P 500 loss of nearly 15% over the ensuing nine months.

Aug 06 2018

Value Turns Positive

  • Aug 6, 2018

Value finally performed well during July, turning in its best month of 2018 on a spread basis. While the factor category is still deep in negative territory for the year, almost 85% of its underperformance is coming from the worst quintile outperforming the universe; meaning Value has mostly struggled because of expensive stocks outperforming, not cheap stocks lagging.

Aug 06 2018

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Aug 6, 2018

Our Royal Blue Low P/E Tier finally outperformed the High P/E Tier for the first time since November. YTD, Value stocks still lag Growth in all market cap tiers.

Aug 06 2018

Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap

  • Aug 6, 2018

The recent run up in Small Cap stocks, coupled with a less rosy (though still fantastic) trailing earnings profile, has given us the largest Small Cap premium we’ve seen in three years.

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