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Aug 30 2019

Is A Strengthening Dollar A Form Of Policy Tightening?

  • Aug 30, 2019

Executive summary (for those leaving early for the holiday weekend): No.

We’ve found no reliable relationship between swings in the U.S. Dollar and subsequent variations in U.S. economic growth.

Aug 23 2019

Portraits Of A Split Market

  • Aug 23, 2019

There’s an old Wall Street adage: “When the wind blows hard enough, even the turkeys fly.” A sophisticated meteorological instrument known as the “price chart” says the wind died down considerably beginning in January 2018

Aug 16 2019

Here’s One Reason Sentiment Is So Subdued...

  • Aug 16, 2019

Market bulls remain mystified by the lack of enthusiasm for stocks given the proximity of U.S. indexes to all-time highs. They view this relative indifference as a contrarian positive—the “wall of worry” argument.

 

Aug 15 2019

Can Equity Investors Eat Their Cake And Have It Too?

  • Aug 15, 2019

Investor sentiment seems to be unusually conflicted these days. There are worries aplenty, including numerous political skirmishes of consequence around the world, a slowing global economy, and lofty U.S. equity valuations. On the other hand, fiscal stimulus is high for this stage in an economic cycle and the Fed is easing monetary policy, two policy drivers it rarely pays to bet against.

Aug 09 2019

Blue Book August 2019

  • Aug 9, 2019

Our group coverage spans most of the traditional groups as defined by Standard & Poor’s and Morgan Stanley Capital International. At times, we found ourselves in disagreement with the S&P/MSCI “standardized” group delineation, but this structure was maintained, with minimal modifications. We have, however, added additional component stocks to all groups and adopted our proprietary approach to component weightings.

Aug 02 2019

Icing Over?

  • Aug 2, 2019

Will this economic cycle end with “fire” (overheating) or “ice” (a whiff of deflation)? Interestingly, hedges against both outcomes have performed well in recent months, with both gold and Treasury bonds spiking. For many reasons, though, we believe the U.S. expansion is more likely to end in a deflationary bust.

May 17 2019

Microsoft Reclaims The Iron Throne

  • May 17, 2019

Even our staid and august firm isn’t above a little Game of Thrones clickbait.

After nineteen years in the wilderness, an old king has returned for his throne. The House of Microsoft is once again the most valuable company in the S&P 500 and, as of last month, is the sole occupier of the “4% Club” (i.e., weighting in the index).

 

May 15 2019

May Green Book Summary

  • May 15, 2019

In 1962, President Kennedy clashed with steel companies over a 3.5% price hike and, in the midst of that, the S&P 500 declined 24% over the span of just a few months. In hindsight, that conflict about steel prices looks like BB gun material compared to the bazookas Trump and trade adviser Robert Lighthizer have fired in the last year. Could the present-day trade war with China “trigger” a decline like that (allegedly) of the Kennedy Slide?

Apr 12 2019

April Green Book Summary

  • Apr 12, 2019

In the first three months of 2019, the S&P 500 surged 13%, its best quarterly performance in nearly ten years. This is strikingly similar to the rally of 1999—which may have been the most speculative in U.S. history. 

Mar 13 2019

March Green Book Summary

  • Mar 13, 2019

Based on standard technical retracements, the best-case S&P 500 bounce “should” have been exhausted in the range of 2,700-2,750. Less than three months since a 19.8% close-to-close decline, the market has rallied to within reach of a new high, a move which would commemorate the bull market’s 10th anniversary.

Mar 07 2019

Price To Book: The King Is Dead

  • Mar 7, 2019

Since the earliest days of security analysis—when the main question was which railroad stock to buy—Price to Book has been a cornerstone of the valuation process.

Feb 13 2019

February Green Book Summary

  • Feb 13, 2019

The Research Summary is now available for download on our website for February 2019. The Research Summary provides a synopsis of The Leuthold Group's monthly market outlook.

Jan 25 2019

Leuthold Quick Takes: Cyclical Bear Or Recovery Refresh?

  • Jan 25, 2019

The fourth quarter selloff and subsequent rebound, as seen by Doug Ramsey (Chief Investment Officer) and Jim Paulsen (Chief Investment Strategist).

Jan 11 2019

January Green Book Summary

  • Jan 11, 2019

At some point in his career, famed stock trader Jesse Livermore ceased using the terms bull and bear, opting instead to describe trends in terms of “lines of least resistance.” He felt the change in terminology enabled a more flexible, unbiased mindset.

Jan 10 2019

Ancient Forecasting Diagram Predicts Grim 2019

  • Jan 10, 2019

Published 60 years ago in a newspaper gossip column, this diagram forecasted a major market high in 1972 and a panic low in 1982.

Dec 28 2018

Stocks Just Delivered A Strong Deflationary Impulse

  • Dec 28, 2018

Investors have just suffered a negative wealth effect that will likely work to tamp down inflation over the next year.

Dec 28 2018

3% Yields Proved To Be High Enough

  • Dec 28, 2018

In September the popular claim was that “interest rates were rising for the right reasons,” and still too low to threaten stocks or U.S. economic expansion.

Dec 20 2018

Fake-Out Breakout?

  • Dec 20, 2018

Throughout the recovery from the market’s early-2018 correction, we suggested any new high would be a good candidate for a “fake-out breakout” along the lines of those near the bull market tops of 1990, 2000, and 2007.

Dec 18 2018

December Green Book Summary

  • Dec 18, 2018

The bears gorged themselves in the two weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and the S&P 500 closed at a correction low the day afterward. “Christmas” arrived immediately thereafter, with a six-day gain of 6%. But that was followed by a two-day collapse on December 4th and 6th, which undercut the post-Thanksgiving low on an intraday basis.

Nov 15 2018

Asset Allocation: As Bad As It Gets

  • Nov 15, 2018

Asset Allocation in 2018 is about as bad as it gets. No major asset class has done well.

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