Skip to content

Latest Research

June 17

The Odd Couple?

A survey asking equity investors whether the stock market does best with a strong or weak U.S. dollar would likely yield a variety of contradicting opinions—and they would all be correct! Like many couples, the stock/dollar relationship is complicated. Sometimes they get along blissfully, other times they separate because they find they rarely agree and, often, they simply seem indifferent to each other. They are an odd couple!
 

Read more
June 11

MTI: Economic Measures Continue To Lose Ground

We view market and economic risks as high, but the Momentum picture has been convincing enough to prevent us from adopting a maximally defensive posture.

Read more
June 10

Will Stimulus “Trump” Trade?

U.S. economic growth has recently slowed and most attribute the weakening to trade wars now being fought on several fronts (China, Mexico, Europe?). Bond vigilantes have become so concerned about the potential for negative economic fallout that they have inverted the yield curve.

Read more
June 07

MTI Back Into Negative Territory

Read this week's Major Trend.

Read more
June 04

MTI Back In Negative Territory

We don’t like “news-driven” market moves, and it’s pretty obvious that May’s decline was due in large part to the ramp-up in the trade war. That said, trends in the economy and earnings were already weakening prior to the latest escalation.

Read more
May 31

What Doesn’t Kill You… May Make You Rich?

The bond market is now the primary fear for stock investors. Bond yields just keep declining, the yield curve has again inverted, and many wonder ‘why is the bond market so spooked?’ Could it be signaling a recession and therefore a bear market?

Read more
May 29

MTI: Economic/Momentum Continue To Lose Steam

Aside from the decidedly bearish action in the Treasury yield curve, U.S. and global money supply growth rates remain sluggish; both the Fed balance sheet and the Adjusted Monetary Base are still in outright decline.

Read more
May 28

Concepts On The Cranium

Just some unrelated thoughts this week. A few concepts for the cranium! 

Read more
May 21

MTI: Economic Measures Remain Weak

Weakness in several coincident economic measures suggest that global-policy tightening over the last 18 months is having an impact. The current Fed policy stance doesn’t lead us to believe much improvement is likely in the near term.

Read more
May 20

Say Hi To Goldie?

Despite the current trade war with China, the U.S. economy has taken on an air of ‘Goldilocks’ since the December stock market swoon. Real economic growth has slowed, and both inflation and interest rates have moderated. The pace of growth is no longer too hot—as it was last year—nor has it yet become too cold—as most feared earlier this year. 

Read more
May 17

Microsoft Reclaims The Iron Throne

Even our staid and august firm isn’t above a little Game of Thrones clickbait.

After nineteen years in the wilderness, an old king has returned for his throne. The House of Microsoft is once again the most valuable company in the S&P 500 and, as of last month, is the sole occupier of the “4% Club” (i.e., weighting in the index).

 

Read more
May 15

May Green Book Summary

In 1962, President Kennedy clashed with steel companies over a 3.5% price hike and, in the midst of that, the S&P 500 declined 24% over the span of just a few months. In hindsight, that conflict about steel prices looks like BB gun material compared to the bazookas Trump and trade adviser Robert Lighthizer have fired in the last year. Could the present-day trade war with China “trigger” a decline like that (allegedly) of the Kennedy Slide?

Read more
May 14

MTI: Momentum Pulls Back

The Momentum work has been the largest week-to-week MTI swing factor for many months, and that was the case again last week. The Attitudinal category improved, reflecting increasing investor anxiety.

Read more
May 13

The Fed Hit The Pause Button But Investors Pressed ‘Replay’

After the December stock market swoon, amidst escalating recession fears, the Federal Reserve hit the pause button on interest rate hikes. Investors, though, had a déjà vu moment, sensing the 2018 experience as reminiscent of a few years earlier and, considering the aftermath of the prior occurrence turned out to be profitable, investors in 2019 opted to hit the replay button! 
 

Read more

Interested in Investing in a Model?

Contact us if you are interested in investing in our ETF models.