The Trump administration inherited a fully employed economy, but one showing most leading indicators (except the stock market) flashing yellow or red. Nearly eight months into his term, that’s still the case—only more so.

The S&P 500’s Q2 estimated bottom-up operating EPS has now increased 4% since the start of reporting. This V-shaped recovery has erased the discount in earnings seen after “Liberation Day”; EPS estimates now stand even with those at the end of March. Despite the higher revisions for the current quarter, projections for the final two quarters of 2025 have only leveled off from their tariff-scare down-leg.