NVIDIA’s rise has reshaped the S&P 500 like never before. In just 18 months, the company has doubled its share of the index, hitting an unprecedented 8% weight. What does that mean for investors, for the balance of power among mega-caps, and for the old “4% Club” warning system? Phil Segner breaks it down in this episode of the Leuthold Podcast.

The S&P 500’s Q2 estimated bottom-up operating EPS shot 2% higher after the first month of reporting. This recovery effectively negates some of the earnings markdown associated with trade uncertainty in the months leading up to this reporting season. The EPS snail trails for the coming three quarters also leveled out or have even turned higher.

And just like that, we’re thrust back into the good ‘ole days where Roaring Kitty was a household name and SwaggyStocks.com was one of our bookmarks in Internet Explorer (RIP). Highly-shorted stocks are back in vogue among the retail crowd. Those virtuous crusaders—or perhaps compulsive gamblers—brave or stupid enough to crowd into names with almost 50% of shares sold short have returned for another round of “sticking it” to the short-sellers*.

Imagine the best-performing industry group out of 119 since late 2023. Was it a red-hot tech stock? A booming financial giant? Think again. It was in the stone-cold consumer staple sector: tobacco, which has surged almost 90% through this period!

Read this week's Major Trend. 

In this session, Doug explores the unusual resilience of the stock market amid soft economic signals. He highlights how, historically, equities begin to falter well before a business cycle peak—but recent strength suggests investors may be looking past traditional warning signs.

All three strategies posted strong relative results in May. Core gained 3.3% with balanced net equity exposure, while Select Industries advanced 7.1%, outpacing both large and small cap indexes. Grizzly Short managed downside well, declining 5.0% in a sharply rising market. The Major Trend Index shifted to Neutral, signaling a more constructive technical backdrop.

The S&P 500’s estimated bottom-up operating EPS for Q1 lost altitude during the second month of reporting. (Chart 1). That resumes the rounded downslope of estimated EPS erosion for the quarter that seems foreign (though normal) after the resiliency of the 2024 data. The next three quarters of 2025—periods that will be affected by the trade war—continued their post tariff decline. The waning projections still have the index inline for 10% YOY EPS growth. At this point in the game, 5% growth is probably a stretch.

The S&P 500’s estimated bottom-up operating EPS nosed slightly higher during the first month of Q1 reporting. This is a welcome development following the steeper-than-usual decline over the past six months. Projections for the next three quarters of 2025 weren't as fortunate in April, as they all experienced a noticeably steep leg down of around 3%. The full-year 2025 operating EPS estimate for the index now sits at $260.72, down a conspicuous 4% since the beginning of the year.

The S&P 500’s bottom-up operating EPS continued to improve in the second month of reporting. Since the start of Q4 announcements, the EPS figure has increased 1%. The direction of the estimate, not necessary the amount, is what’s impressive. The same can’t be said for the coming two quarters, however. Bottom-up projections for Q1-25 have fallen 4% in the last two months, while Q2-25 is off 2%. Again, sharp moves higher in the EPS snail trails are exceedingly rare. With almost all of the reporting done for 2024, the S&P 500’s operating EPS of $234 equates to a healthy YOY gain of 9.5%. The expectation for full-year 2025 currently stands at +14.3%.