Where would you rather be? On October 3rd, the S&P 500 toyed with the January 2018 high and then powered above it to close the day higher. This led to us to wonder if one “had” to own the S&P 500 at around the 2,900 level, would one have been better off owning it at that level in January 2018 or in October 2019? Here we summarize conditions existing at both stages of the bull market.

Chart

To our eyes, the 2,900 level looks cyclically and technically more dangerous now than in January 2018, with only a mild improvement in valuations to compensate for the elevated risks.