Skip to content
Dec 28 2018

3% Yields Proved To Be High Enough

  • Dec 28, 2018

Join Advisors


James Paulsen, Ph.D. / Chief Investment Strategist

Jim Paulsen

Read Jim Paulsen's renouned weekly market newsletter, Paulsen's Perspective.

Fund/ETF Notes

Updates from our CIO Doug Ramsey and the Portfolio Management Team

Research

Ideas for advisors to make asset allocation, sector or factor tilts based on our research.

Free Trial

Take a test drive before making a commitment. Trial includes full access to our Advisors site.

Sign up today

Most market players would love to turn back the clock just three months, to September 21st, when the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yield recorded relatively rare “joint” 52-week closing highs (on a weekly closing basis). The popular claim at the time was that “interest rates were rising for the right reasons,” and were still too low to threaten either the stock market or U.S. economic expansion.

Chart 1

We noted in October that simultaneous one-year highs in stocks and yields have historically been followed by stock market returns that are essentially flat, on average, over a one-to-six-month horizon. While this year’s yield rise may in fact have occurred for the “right reasons” (whatever those are), the stock market’s short-term response has been the worst of all signals dating back to the mid-1950s.

Chart 2

Login

For full access, please enter your credentials.
Remember Me

About The Author

Doug Ramsey / Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

Interested in Investing in a Model?

Contact us if you are interested in investing in our ETF models.