There is still considerable debate about whether the bear market has yet set its low. Certainly, if the U.S. economy is headed for a deep recession, stock investors will face additional, significant downside risk. Several smart bears on Wall Street suggest the S&P 500 could decline to about 3,000—or -25% from today’s level—as analysts are forced to cut earnings estimates. However, if the economy manages to avoid recession or experiences only a modest contraction, a new bull market may already be unfolding. While, understandably, downside risk typically gets the most attention, investors should also consider what the “upside risk” could be in the coming year if the “low is already in?”