Serenity Now

The launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28th triggered a 51% surge in WTI crude in just three weeks, reigniting investor fears of economic disruption reminiscent of the 1973 OPEC embargo. As tactical investors, we were curious to see what the historical impact of sharp oil price spikes has been on the stock market and on important macro indicators. This analysis evaluates 15 distinct oil price shock episodes since 1985, each characterized by a greater than 20% price increase within 30 days, to assess the historical impact on equity markets, GDP, inflation, and interest rates.