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Major Trend Index

Jun 11 2019

MTI: Economic Measures Continue To Lose Ground

  • Jun 11, 2019

We view market and economic risks as high, but the Momentum picture has been convincing enough to prevent us from adopting a maximally defensive posture.

Jun 07 2019

MTI Back Into Negative Territory

  • Jun 7, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Jun 04 2019

MTI Back In Negative Territory

  • Jun 4, 2019

We don’t like “news-driven” market moves, and it’s pretty obvious that May’s decline was due in large part to the ramp-up in the trade war. That said, trends in the economy and earnings were already weakening prior to the latest escalation.

May 29 2019

MTI: Economic/Momentum Continue To Lose Steam

  • May 29, 2019

Aside from the decidedly bearish action in the Treasury yield curve, U.S. and global money supply growth rates remain sluggish; both the Fed balance sheet and the Adjusted Monetary Base are still in outright decline.

May 21 2019

MTI: Economic Measures Remain Weak

  • May 21, 2019

Weakness in several coincident economic measures suggest that global-policy tightening over the last 18 months is having an impact. The current Fed policy stance doesn’t lead us to believe much improvement is likely in the near term.

May 14 2019

MTI: Momentum Pulls Back

  • May 14, 2019

The Momentum work has been the largest week-to-week MTI swing factor for many months, and that was the case again last week. The Attitudinal category improved, reflecting increasing investor anxiety.

May 07 2019

MTI: Edging Higher Within Neutral Band

  • May 7, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Apr 30 2019

MTI: Stock Leadership Similar To Late 1990s’

  • Apr 30, 2019

We are not in the “melt-up” camp but we’re impressed by the close similarities in leadership with the greatest late-cycle melt-up of all time, which took place from late 1998 through March 2000.

Apr 23 2019

Price Action Strong Despite Earnings/Liquidity Trends

  • Apr 23, 2019

Although we are not in the “melt-up” camp, we’d concede that stock market leadership is exactly what we’d expect if we were in that camp: Domestic over Foreign, Large over Small, and Growth over Value. Price action continues to remind us of the powerful rebound off the fall 1998 lows. Current earnings and liquidity trends, however, are not nearly as supportive as they were during that historic market move.

Apr 16 2019

MTI: Dead Neutral

  • Apr 16, 2019

The Boom/Bust Indicator, a weekly ratio of industrial-commodity prices to initial unemployment claims, has had a near-vertical rebound to old highs in the last several weeks. This index usually peaks out many months in advance of a business cycle peak (although not in 2007, when it provided no warning of the pain to come).

Apr 09 2019

MTI: Momentum Keeps Gaining

  • Apr 9, 2019

If the market’s manic rebound succeeds in assuaging consumers’ recently shaken confidence, we can certainly see a scenario in which the economy and corporate profits firm up after their current slowdown… although that is not our bet.

Apr 05 2019

MTI: Firmly Neutral

  • Apr 5, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Apr 02 2019

MTI: Valuation Factors Still A Drag, But Well Below Extremes

  • Apr 2, 2019

The Intrinsic Value category remains a drag on the MTI but is well below cycle extremes seen in January 2018 and again in September. The Momentum category, however, continues to nudge the MTI higher for the third consecutive week.

Mar 26 2019

MTI Remains Low-Neutral

  • Mar 26, 2019

One of our long-term momentum models improved last week, while the Dow Bond Oscillator—as good of a mechanical monetary indicator as we’ve encountered—pushed further into positive territory.

Mar 19 2019

Economic Work Lifts MTI Into Neutral Zone

  • Mar 19, 2019

Within the Economic work, the big development was a bullish flip in our Dow Bond Oscillator (DBO), which crossed above the zero threshold by the thinnest of margins. Subjectively, however, we are troubled that government yields across the maturity spectrum have been holding near recent lows in the face of equities’ powerful rally.

Mar 12 2019

MTI: Valuations Ignoring Indications Of An Earnings Recession

  • Mar 12, 2019

Valuations seem to ignore indications that an earnings recession has begun, let alone the possibility that S&P 500 GAAP Earnings Per Share for 2018 could represent not just a short-term peak, but perhaps a cyclical peak as well.

Mar 07 2019

MTI: Almost Neutral, But Not Quite

  • Mar 7, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Mar 05 2019

Momentum Factors Reflect Breadth Of 10-Week Rally

  • Mar 5, 2019

All of the domestic and global quantitative Chart Scores in the Momentum category are now positive and both the Advance/Decline and High/Low figures leave no doubt as to the breadth behind the market’s 10-week rally.

 

Feb 26 2019

MTI: Still Negative, But Gap Narrows

  • Feb 26, 2019

The MTI’s stubbornness during the current rally confirms our overall sense that cyclical risks facing U.S. equities remain high. That said, we have great respect for the action of the market itself—enough so that we’ve allowed net equity exposure in our tactical funds to drift upward.

Feb 20 2019

MTI: Momentum Strengthens

  • Feb 20, 2019

Momentum category gain was driven by strength in breadth measures, selected trend models, and most of the Chart Scores.

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