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Major Trend Index

Apr 16 2019

MTI: Dead Neutral

  • Apr 16, 2019

The Boom/Bust Indicator, a weekly ratio of industrial-commodity prices to initial unemployment claims, has had a near-vertical rebound to old highs in the last several weeks. This index usually peaks out many months in advance of a business cycle peak (although not in 2007, when it provided no warning of the pain to come).

Apr 09 2019

MTI: Momentum Keeps Gaining

  • Apr 9, 2019

If the market’s manic rebound succeeds in assuaging consumers’ recently shaken confidence, we can certainly see a scenario in which the economy and corporate profits firm up after their current slowdown… although that is not our bet.

Apr 05 2019

MTI: Firmly Neutral

  • Apr 5, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Apr 02 2019

MTI: Valuation Factors Still A Drag, But Well Below Extremes

  • Apr 2, 2019

The Intrinsic Value category remains a drag on the MTI but is well below cycle extremes seen in January 2018 and again in September. The Momentum category, however, continues to nudge the MTI higher for the third consecutive week.

Mar 26 2019

MTI Remains Low-Neutral

  • Mar 26, 2019

One of our long-term momentum models improved last week, while the Dow Bond Oscillator—as good of a mechanical monetary indicator as we’ve encountered—pushed further into positive territory.

Mar 19 2019

Economic Work Lifts MTI Into Neutral Zone

  • Mar 19, 2019

Within the Economic work, the big development was a bullish flip in our Dow Bond Oscillator (DBO), which crossed above the zero threshold by the thinnest of margins. Subjectively, however, we are troubled that government yields across the maturity spectrum have been holding near recent lows in the face of equities’ powerful rally.

Mar 12 2019

MTI: Valuations Ignoring Indications Of An Earnings Recession

  • Mar 12, 2019

Valuations seem to ignore indications that an earnings recession has begun, let alone the possibility that S&P 500 GAAP Earnings Per Share for 2018 could represent not just a short-term peak, but perhaps a cyclical peak as well.

Mar 07 2019

MTI: Almost Neutral, But Not Quite

  • Mar 7, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Mar 05 2019

Momentum Factors Reflect Breadth Of 10-Week Rally

  • Mar 5, 2019

All of the domestic and global quantitative Chart Scores in the Momentum category are now positive and both the Advance/Decline and High/Low figures leave no doubt as to the breadth behind the market’s 10-week rally.

 

Feb 26 2019

MTI: Still Negative, But Gap Narrows

  • Feb 26, 2019

The MTI’s stubbornness during the current rally confirms our overall sense that cyclical risks facing U.S. equities remain high. That said, we have great respect for the action of the market itself—enough so that we’ve allowed net equity exposure in our tactical funds to drift upward.

Feb 20 2019

MTI: Momentum Strengthens

  • Feb 20, 2019

Momentum category gain was driven by strength in breadth measures, selected trend models, and most of the Chart Scores.

Feb 12 2019

MTI: Attitudinal Measures Net Negative

  • Feb 12, 2019

The Attitudinal category, which tends to vary inversely with the Momentum work, turned negative for the first time since mid-October, suggesting growing investor conviction that the rally will continue.

Feb 07 2019

MTI: Still Short Of Neutral

  • Feb 7, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Feb 05 2019

MTI: Big Boost In Momentum Measures

  • Feb 5, 2019

From a Momentum perspective, chart work has improved across the board but much of the longer-term trend work has remained in neutral or bear territory. These measures are, by definition, late at turning points, and we strongly prefer that the “anticipatory” tools within the MTI drive most of the swings.

Jan 29 2019

MTI: Investor Expectations Are Subdued

  • Jan 29, 2019

The Attitudinal category remains solidly bullish, suggesting there are significant investor doubts surrounding the rally. The market has also absorbed the past few days’ earnings torpedoes fairly well, another sign that expectations are still subdued.

Jan 23 2019

MTI: Economic Numbers Continue To Weaken

  • Jan 23, 2019

While growth rates in M1, M2, and MZM appear to have leveled off following their sharp declines over the prior 18 months, the annual rate of decline in the Adjusted Monetary Base (a good proxy for the Fed’s balance sheet) accelerated to almost 12% at year-end from just 3% six months earlier.

Jan 15 2019

MTI: Bear Market Rally In Progress

  • Jan 15, 2019

The move off the late-December lows has been broad and powerful but not at all unusual for a countertrend move in a bear market. Since 1945, bear market rallies in the S&P 500 have lasted an average of six weeks and carried the index higher by an average of 10.8%.

Jan 08 2019

MTI: Up A Bit, But Still Negative

  • Jan 8, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Jan 03 2019

MTI: Attitudinal Factors Best Since 2016

  • Jan 3, 2019

The Attitudinal category’s net reading is the best (i.e., most pessimistic) since the week following the February 2016 correction low. While that’s an encouraging sign, there’s no mechanical threshold on this composite which would indicate a “safe” re-entry point.

Dec 26 2018

MTI: Intrinsic Value Readings Jump

  • Dec 26, 2018

The lack of more meaningful MTI improvement in response to this month’s collapse suggests the bear has yet to fully express himself. But the swipes he’s taken so far have hit hard: Last week saw a nearly 150-point gain in the Intrinsic Value composite to its best level since April 2016.

 

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