Major Trend Index
The Momentum category continues to grind higher, but this push has predictably stirred up investor enthusiasm (as measured this week by an identical decline in our Attitudinal composite). At the same time, longer-term measures like CEO Confidence, Small Business Optimism, and Consumer Confidence have all weakened in the latest reports, suggesting a rollover in animal spirits could be underway.
The bounce in the Economic category interrupted its last few months’ steady grind lower; the increase was led mostly by an upgrade to the NOPE Index (ISM New Orders Minus Price Index), which moved from high neutral to moderately bullish. The action of individual components is hardly reassuring, however.