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Major Trend Index

Feb 12 2019

MTI: Attitudinal Measures Net Negative

  • Feb 12, 2019

The Attitudinal category, which tends to vary inversely with the Momentum work, turned negative for the first time since mid-October, suggesting growing investor conviction that the rally will continue.

Feb 07 2019

MTI: Still Short Of Neutral

  • Feb 7, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Feb 05 2019

MTI: Big Boost In Momentum Measures

  • Feb 5, 2019

From a Momentum perspective, chart work has improved across the board but much of the longer-term trend work has remained in neutral or bear territory. These measures are, by definition, late at turning points, and we strongly prefer that the “anticipatory” tools within the MTI drive most of the swings.

Jan 29 2019

MTI: Investor Expectations Are Subdued

  • Jan 29, 2019

The Attitudinal category remains solidly bullish, suggesting there are significant investor doubts surrounding the rally. The market has also absorbed the past few days’ earnings torpedoes fairly well, another sign that expectations are still subdued.

Jan 23 2019

MTI: Economic Numbers Continue To Weaken

  • Jan 23, 2019

While growth rates in M1, M2, and MZM appear to have leveled off following their sharp declines over the prior 18 months, the annual rate of decline in the Adjusted Monetary Base (a good proxy for the Fed’s balance sheet) accelerated to almost 12% at year-end from just 3% six months earlier.

Jan 15 2019

MTI: Bear Market Rally In Progress

  • Jan 15, 2019

The move off the late-December lows has been broad and powerful but not at all unusual for a countertrend move in a bear market. Since 1945, bear market rallies in the S&P 500 have lasted an average of six weeks and carried the index higher by an average of 10.8%.

Jan 08 2019

MTI: Up A Bit, But Still Negative

  • Jan 8, 2019

Read this week's Major Trend.

Jan 03 2019

MTI: Attitudinal Factors Best Since 2016

  • Jan 3, 2019

The Attitudinal category’s net reading is the best (i.e., most pessimistic) since the week following the February 2016 correction low. While that’s an encouraging sign, there’s no mechanical threshold on this composite which would indicate a “safe” re-entry point.

Dec 26 2018

MTI: Intrinsic Value Readings Jump

  • Dec 26, 2018

The lack of more meaningful MTI improvement in response to this month’s collapse suggests the bear has yet to fully express himself. But the swipes he’s taken so far have hit hard: Last week saw a nearly 150-point gain in the Intrinsic Value composite to its best level since April 2016.

 

Dec 18 2018

MTI: Median P/E Ratios Much Improved, But Not Blue Chips’

  • Dec 18, 2018

The median trailing P/E across the Leuthold 3000 universe has corrected more than 30% from January’s bull market peak (and all-time peak) of 25.1x to just 17.3x on Friday, while the median Normalized P/E ratio has shrunk more than 20% to 22.4x.

Dec 11 2018

MTI: Rally Not Unusual When Trend Work So Negative

  • Dec 11, 2018

More of our long-term trend-following measures deteriorated to "bear" status, but it isn't unusual for the market to stage a brief countertrend rally when this work becomes as decisively bearish as it is now.

Dec 07 2018

MTI Says This Is A Bear Market

  • Dec 7, 2018

Read this week's Major Trend.

Dec 04 2018

MTI: Inflation Measures Have Faded Sharply

  • Dec 4, 2018

The Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category was not a big mover on the week, but its relative stability of late has masked a major shift within key indicator groupings. Leading inflation measures have faded sharply, with upgrades across the board in the commodity readings.

Nov 27 2018

MTI: Fundamentals Improve

  • Nov 27, 2018

While the improvement in the fundamental categories is encouraging, the weight of the evidence continues to support a cyclically defensive stance toward the stock market.

Nov 20 2018

MTI: Extensive Overvaluation Vs. 1999/2000

  • Nov 20, 2018

A critical difference we’ve discussed repeatedly is that market overvaluation in the 1999/2000 episode was concentrated in roughly the top-50 Mega Caps, while current overvaluation—though arguably not as extreme—afflicts nearly the entire list of publicly-traded U.S. stocks.

Nov 13 2018

MTI: Too Early For Bullish Valuation Case

  • Nov 13, 2018

Although the Intrinsic Value category is now about 100 points above the worst levels recorded in early January, it is far too early to begin making a bullish valuation case for the stock market. Interestingly, some of the same pundits who warned “valuation is not a timing tool” on the way up are the ones trotting out these premature, value-based arguments—which are typically built on extremely-optimistic forecasts for 2019 operating EPS.

Nov 07 2018

MTI Slides Further Into Bear Territory

  • Nov 7, 2018

Read this week's Major Trend.

Oct 30 2018

MTI: Plunge In Momentum

  • Oct 30, 2018

Momentum category collapsed to receive its first negative reading since early March 2016, while the Attitudinal category flipped to net positive ground for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years.

Oct 23 2018

MTI: Acceleration In Global Tightening

  • Oct 23, 2018

We believe the catalyst for market weakness has been the decline in accommodation by the Fed and other central banks. While there has been a pullback in some of the leading inflation measures since June, the rate of global tightening has actually accelerated.

Oct 16 2018

MTI: Sharp Drop In Momentum

  • Oct 16, 2018

The abrupt decline in the Momentum work reflects deterioration in most trend models, along with bearish flips in the Chart Scores for the Russell 2000, NYSE Financials, KBW Bank Index, and Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD). The NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line provided only limited warning of the impending weakness.

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